Tuesday, December 13, 2005
Market Recap
From: Ken<info@swingtradescom.com>
Reply-To: Kenunsubscribe@swingtradescom.com
Subject: Market Recap
Date: Sun, 11 Dec 2005 21:20:00 -0800
+23.46 +3.53
11.37%
Swing Trading -0.64% -0.90 Notes to Charts:
Daily Chart:
- This Daily chart here defines the trading range the market which started back in November 2004
- Market broke through the support area in Mid April ( A ), however a quick return above the 20 day EMA alerted us to a possible false breakdown
- MAs went into an uptrend at ( B) with the MA crossover up. This marked the start of the uptrend to new multi-year highs
- Recent pullback in the market was supported right at the MAs ( C ).
- 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, representing a Daily Chart downtrend at point ( D ).
- Market rallied today but still closed below the 5 day EMA ( E ), maintaining its short term downtrend bias.
- Market EMAs (20 and 50 EMA) have crossed up, putting the Daily chart into an uptrend
- Stochastics have just come down through the overbought 80 line ( F ) creating a short term bearish signal
Hourly Chart:
- Hourly chart went into an uptrend with a crossover up ( G )
- After a brief dip below the MAs, markets surged up making a more definitive crossover up at point ( H ). This marked the start of the break out of the trading range to the upside ( I ).
- After a subsequent pullback to the 20 hour EMA, market surged ahead to new trend highs ( J )
- Recent market action has found good support at uptrending MAs. Despite the recent dips below the MAs, the Hourly uptrend remained nicely in tact with the 20 EMA above the 50 EMA ( K )
- Recent pullback now has created an early Moving Average downtrend ( L ) with the 20 EMA slightly below the 50 EMA. This is not a decisive break as of yet, but we keep a watchful eye for more definitive confirmation of this new sideways to downtrend. Stock traded slightly to the upside today but is still slightly below the downtrending MAs
5 Minute Chart:
- Intraday downtrend started with the crossover down ( M ). Market has since entered into a sideways trading range
Assessment:
The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA up above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart. Market has recently surged ahead to new multi-year highs. This could open things up for more aggressive trading now that we are out of the trading range.
The short term trend is now neutral to slightly down with the 20 EMA just below the 50 EMA. This is confirmed by short term sign from the Daily chart with prices below the 5 day EMA and Stochstics in a downtrend. Note that the warning signs on the Daily chart clued us in to the early change in the Hourly trend. We will keep a close watch on this signals for a more definite trend.
We now have a conflicting signals between long and short term trends. We will therefore remain conservative with our trading, taking our cues from the Hourly charts.
These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.
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