Tuesday, January 24, 2006
Weekly recap for 012306
From: Ken<info@swingtradescom.com>
Reply-To: Ken<unsubscribe@swingtradescom.com>
Subject: Weekly recap for 012306
Date: Sun, 22 Jan 2006 20:40:00 -0800
DOWN
-213.32 -23.55
10.83%
Swing Trading 4.00% 1.79 E-minis -1,762.50 -32.25 Notes to Charts:
Daily Chart:
- This Daily chart here defines the trading range the market which started back in November 2004
- Market broke through the support area in Mid April ( A ), however a quick return above the 20 day EMA alerted us to a possible false breakdown
- MAs went into an uptrend at ( B) with the MA crossover up. This marked the start of the uptrend to new multi-year highs
- Recent pullback in the market was supported right at the MAs ( C ).
- 20 EMA crossed below the 50 EMA, representing a Daily Chart downtrend at point ( D ).
- Market EMAs (20 and 50 EMA) have crossed up, putting the Daily chart into an uptrend
- Market reversed a pullback with a surge off of its 50 day EMA, to keep the uptrend in tact
- Market fell today to close below its 5 day EMA ( E ) maintaining its short term downtrend bias.
- Recent market action has failed support at the 20 day EMA. We will continue to watch market action near the 20 day EMA for clues on the larger trend
- Stochstics have come down through the overbought 80 line ( F ), creating a short term bearish signal
Hourly Chart:
- Hourly chart entered into a sideways range in November �05. Frequent MA crossovers are characteristic of a sideways range.
- After a drop just below the Near Term Support area, the market traded sideways and broke out and returned back to the top end of the recent range ( G ). The brief breakdown was more of a false breakdown move
- After a couple days at the resistance area, market surged ahead to continue its overall uptrend ( H ).
- Recent market pullback has prices just below the MAs. Hourly chart now in downtrend, with the 20 EMA crossing down below the 50 EMA ( I )
- Market rallied briefly above the MAs ( J ) but the downtrend remained in tact with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA
- Market continued on with its current Hourly downtrend today with close below all the MAs ( K )
5 Minute Chart:
- Market proceeded with a steady trend under the MAs after the crossover down ( L )
Assessment:
The longer term trend is up with the 20 EMA up above the 50 EMA on the Daily chart. We do note short term weakness with a failed support at the 20 day EMA. We will watch the action around the 20 day EMA for clues on the sustainability of the current trend.
The short term trend is down with the 20 EMA below the 50 EMA. This is confirmed by factors on the Daily chart with prices below the 5 day EMA and Stochastics in a downtrend. We will watch these factors closely for any changes in the current trend.
We now have conflicting signals between short and long term trends. We will therefore keep our trades conservative while taking our cues from the Hourly Charts. Current bias is slightly to the short side of the market.
These charts are here to help you get a visual picture of where we stand in the market from a broad to a very detailed perspective. Recognize where we are and what kind of trend we are in, rather than trying to predict market direction.
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